Scouting the 4-Seed: Don’t Sleep on Fairfield

East Carolina won’t open the Conway Regional against Fairfield, but there’s a real chance the Pirates cross paths with the Stags at some point this weekend either in the winner’s bracket Saturday night or in an elimination game down the line.

Fairfield isn’t your typical 4-seed. They’re not a cupcake. They’re not a walkover. They’re not just happy to be here.

The Stags are 39-17 and come in as MAAC regular season and tournament champs. They’ve got a legit offense, two real arms at the top of the rotation, and enough experience to cause trouble if given the chance.

Here’s the full breakdown.

Lineup Full of Hitters

This Fairfield lineup is deep, mature, and dangerous. The Stags hit .295 as a team, with 67 home runs and nearly .900 OPS. They walk more than most mid-majors, they steal bases, and they’ve got pop from top to bottom.

Dean Ferrara - (.381 AVG) is their table-setter and leads the team in hits and runs scored.

Matthew Bucciero - (.351, 14 HR, 66 RBI) is the big bat in the middle and has a 1.100+ OPS.

Luke Nomura - (.331, 14 HR) adds even more thump.

TJ Schmalzle- brings speed and power — 8 homers and 19 stolen bases.

This group doesn’t chase, doesn’t give away at-bats, and makes you earn every out. They’re older, confident, and play loose exactly the kind of team that can give a power program problems.

Pitching: Better Than You’d Think

Most 4-seeds have one good arm. Fairfield has two.

Ben Alekson - (9-1, 3.24 ERA) is their ace. He’s got 78 strikeouts in 89 innings, a .230 opponent average, and doesn’t walk many.

Bowen Baker - (8-1, 3.20 ERA) is just as effective. He’s thrown 76 innings with a 1.14 WHIP.

Kevin Kell- (1.80 ERA, 4 saves) is their main bullpen guy, and he’s been tough to hit all year.

Those three arms give Fairfield a chance in any game. But once you get beyond them, it gets dicey the ERA jumps fast, and they’ve got multiple bullpen arms with ERAs north of 6.00.

If ECU can get into the pen early, the matchup swings.

When Could ECU Face Fairfield?

Two real scenarios:

Saturday Night in the Winner’s Bracket: If Fairfield upsets Coastal and ECU beats Florida, it’s Pirates vs. Stags with a spot in the final on the line.

Elimination Game: If one or both teams lose their opener, a Saturday or Sunday elimination game is possible.

Either way, the Pirates might not see Fairfield’s top arm, depending on how Friday shakes out.

Final Take

Fairfield is a threat. They’re experienced, playing confident baseball, and have nothing to lose. But they’re also beatable especially if you can outlast their starter and get into the soft part of the bullpen.

If ECU sees them, it’ll take a sharp, focused effort but this is still a matchup where the Pirates should feel good, as long as they play their brand.

This isn’t a layup. It’s a business trip.